Tuesday, March 17, 2020

The Very Tiny Virus That Could

I was just at a conference in Dallas March March 3-7 wide eyed-ly confronting behavioral changes that conference organizers were urging us to adopt immediately: hand sanitizing frequently, discouraged hugging, encouraged elbow vs. hand using for anything from opening doors to greetings.

It was surreal and despite my best intentions I seriously flunked behavior change on those first days, warmly hugging about 80 of my friends, including elderly ones unfortunately,  before recoiling guiltily in a "aw shucks...we forgot not to hug" kind of way.  We were in a denial phase about the seriousness awaiting us: my friends sweetly laughing that it was impossible not to hug me or other friends joking about me being a "vector" e.g., I had just been to New York and worked out in a gym right by the People's Republic of China Consulate.

Don't do this with strangers,  Colorado March 2020
Not even two weeks later and the only people still laughing are scientifically illiterate or don't believe in Global Warming (which is actually the same) or don't have easy access to news by choice or because about 50% of the developing world is still without internet access.

The rest of us are rapidly adapting. 

If older and with pre-existing medical conditions for self-protection and the protection of others. If younger and healthy primarily to not harm others by spreading a virus that has brought a country to its knees and depleted its medical resources and is spreading behavior change around the world as every country (ok only 143 out of 195 so far but that is 23 more countries than 2 nights ago) reports the beginning of Covid-19 case-ness. 

Talking about case-ness, it's a mess. 

Some countries like South Korea are in the process of pan-testing and some countries like ours...well individuals are very likely to still not be tested even if symptomatic in the absence of risk factors such "travel exposure" or "exposure to Covid-19 patient". Many people are still being sent home with flu diagnoses because mmmmh we don't have enough tests yet.

Which means that from an epidemiological point of view where measure is key to understanding the scope and size of the problem we don't even have a good picture yet because our measures range from "sick with symptoms" to "tested positive" to define a case. 

It doesn't mean we know nothing.

Quarantining/flattening the curve works: look at Hong Kong which had its first covid-19 case months ago, imposed strict restrictions and has stabilized with 154 cases and just 4 deaths in a very large urban center of millions of people close to the pandemic start.  People quickly learned to drastically reduce: store going, going out, traveling. They learned social distancing, hand washing like their lives depended on it and changing clothes after coming home.  

Perhaps because it's my nature to always manage to revive my optimism despite having almost lifelong depression (which is very good friends with hopelessness but my depression is more often under control than not) I'm observing how one tiny virus can change behaviors at an uncomfortable speed for our brains (ok not as much if you don't believe in science and I have not managed to get all optimistic about the reality that this entails.)  

Still observing us now: I have hope that we can adapt, that we can learn, that we can still save our planet for our children if we wide scale mobilize not just out of fear for ourselves and our own but for the good of others.

I told you I was an optimist. Not a good time to stop being one now.

Love and Warmest Regards,

Anne


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